The ugly underdog from final week, Navy, nearly received outright as a 17-point pooch and whereas it’s tempting to return to the Midshipmen, who're 16.5-point ’canines in opposition to UCF, for a 3rd week on the spin, we’ll tip our caps to our pals in Annapolis and head south for a peculiar matchup between Louisiana-Lafayette and No. 20 Florida State.
That’s proper. We’re three weeks away from convention title video games and Florida State is enjoying the Ragin’ Cajuns.
The Seminoles, who've received three in a row and are again contained in the Prime 25 with a 7-3 file, are 24-point favorites in Tallahassee. The quantity is simply too excessive.
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Louisiana-Lafayette vs. Florida State prediction: Ragin’ Cajuns +24
First, it is a flat spot for the Seminoles. They only ripped aside three ACC opponents — Georgia Tech, Miami and Syracuse — by a mixed rating of 124-22. It has been a terrific run for a program that's attempting desperately to play its manner again onto the nationwide highlight, however it has additionally prompted this quantity to get a bit out of hand.
Second, it is a fairly good matchup spot for the Ragin’ Cajuns. Whereas stopping Jordan Travis received’t be simple, Louisiana boasts among the best secondaries within the Group of 5.
The Ragin’ Cajuns rank twenty fifth in anticipated factors added (EPA) per passing play on protection and sits thirty first in defensive passing success charge. Travis has been unimaginable this season, however he’ll be examined in opposition to a protection that's permitting simply 6.9 yards per try.
And it’s not simply the passing protection that’s been spectacular for Louisiana. The Ragin’ Cajuns additionally rank sixtieth in dashing success charge and forty ninth in stopping explosive runs.
Louisiana’s protection additionally buckles down inside its personal 40, because the Ragin’ Cajuns are the Twenty first-best crew at ending drives.
The Ragin’ Cajuns’ offense is a unique story solely, however the power of this Florida State crew is an electrical offense and never a protection that has been pedestrian for many of the season.
Maybe Florida State’s protection has figured issues out and can trip the momentum of permitting simply six complete factors in its final two video games, however the season-long numbers make that appear unlikely.
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The Seminoles rank 62nd in passing success charge, 59th in dashing success charge and 78th in ending drives. The Louisiana offense has struggled to attain persistently in opposition to Solar Belt opposition, however this Florida State protection has not set the world on hearth this season and, due to their protection, the Ragin’ Cajuns received’t want to attain a ton to maintain the sport respectable.
A lot in betting comes down to purchasing and promoting on the proper instances and it’s exhausting to think about a greater time to go in opposition to the Seminoles. They’ve received an enormous recreation with Florida looming in two weeks to shut out their season, so it might not be a shock in any respect to see Florida State get caught sleepwalking a bit of bit in opposition to a crew from the Solar Belt.
Louisiana-Lafayette vs. Florida State decide:
Ragin’ Cajuns +24 (BetMGM)
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