Few days are higher on the NFL calendar than Thanksgiving Day, and the league is treating us to a trio of intriguing video games this yr that includes elite skill-position stars — although a minimum of one in every of them is going through a tough spot on brief relaxation.
Listed below are three of our favourite prop bets to focus on forward of Thursday’s motion:
Josh Allen over 0.5 interceptions at -115 (BetMGM)
I do know Allen performed a clear recreation within the Payments’ win over the Browns final week, however I’m not satisfied that he’s over the turnover woes that plagued him even earlier than his latest harm.
The preseason MVP favourite ranks second within the league in interceptions (10) and has thrown a minimum of one choose in 5 of his final seven video games, together with three straight video games with a number of interceptions earlier than Sunday. Now he’s going through his shortest remainder of the season forward of Thursday’s kickoff, which solely exacerbates an already worrisome elbow problem.
This Lions’ protection isn’t elite, by any means, but it surely ranks above common in interceptions (eight) and has picked off a minimum of one go in half of its video games this season. All of the indicators level to Allen having an honest shot at throwing one other one right here, which makes this an apparent play at a near-even value.
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Tony Pollard over 67.5 speeding yards at -115 (BetMGM)
Why on the planet is everybody — together with bookmakers — so low on Tony Pollard? The Cowboys’ electrical tailback has rushed for a minimum of 80 yards in 4 straight video games and burned this Giants protection for 105 speeding yards in Week 3, but he’s nonetheless dealing at a value higher reserved for teammate Ezekiel Elliott (60.6 ypg).
That’s nonsense given how nicely the fourth-year again is enjoying in a contract yr. Since Week 6, Pollard ranks sixth throughout all the league in yards per recreation (89.8) and second in yards per carry (6.6), trailing solely quarterback Justin Fields (7.8) on a per-rush foundation. That quantity could be even larger if it counted Pollard’s 109 receiving yards final week, most of which got here after the catch.
The problem for Pollard has all the time been quantity, however he’s seen double-digit carries in every of his final 5 video games and matched Elliott in carries (15) every week in the past. There’s a altering of the guard in Dallas, and the younger gun ought to have little problem hitting this mark in opposition to one of many NFL’s worst run defenses.
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Justin Jefferson over 88.5 receiving yards at -115 (BetMGM)
This looks like a dramatic overreaction to Jefferson’s 33-yard output final week, which was one yard shy of the crew lead on a day the place nothing went proper for Minnesota.
That was clearly an anomaly for Jefferson, who ranks second within the NFL in receiving yards per recreation (109.3) and was averaging a ridiculous 135.7 yards over his earlier six video games earlier than final week’s clunker. He completed with a minimum of six catches and 98 yards in all six of these video games, together with a monster 193-yard effort in Buffalo two weeks in the past.
The Patriots’ go protection ranks among the many greatest within the league, although a few of that comes from going through Sam Ehlinger and Zach Wilson (twice) over the past three video games. Jefferson is well the perfect participant that New England has seen in weeks, if not all yr, and he solely must ship 80% of his common manufacturing to money right here in a prime-time spot.
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