After a two-game slide that in the end squandered their early division lead, the Payments have rebounded with two straight wins to remain within the combine within the AFC East. Standing in the way in which on Thursday might be a well-known foe: New England, which is taking part in elite protection to key a second-half resurgence of its personal.
Listed here are three of our favourite prop bets at BetMGM forward of Thursday Night time Soccer’s divisional conflict between the Payments and Patriots at 8:15 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime Video:
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Payments vs. Patriots Thursday Night time Soccer predictions and picks
Josh Allen over 0.5 interceptions
We’ve focused this prop a handful of occasions already this season, most just lately within the Payments’ win over the Lions per week in the past. Allen’s newest interception helped this wager money for the sixth time in his final eight contests, and I’ll fortunately pay the additional value to get in on that motion as soon as once more.
Allen’s turnover woes didn’t begin this 12 months — he has no less than one interception in 38 of 71 profession begins (53.5 p.c) — however his points have been amplified by a struggling offensive line and a regarding elbow harm that coincides along with his latest struggles. He has a number of picks in three of his final 5 video games coming into Week 13 and leads the NFL in complete interceptions (11) and PFF’s turnover-worthy performs (21).
Now, he enters his first of two clashes with a Patriots protection that ranks third in opponent passer score (78.8), second in sacks (37) and, crucially, fourth in interceptions (12). Allen is already a probable wager for a turnover every week, and this matchup virtually begs for an additional.
Payments vs. Patriots decide: Josh Allen over 0.5 interceptions thrown at -145 with BetMGM
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Rhamondre Stevenson underneath 61.5 speeding yards
Two months in the past, Stevenson was the new new factor at operating again after a 161-yard breakout that earned him his first begin of the season the next week. He has topped 60 speeding yards simply as soon as in 5 video games since, and it seems as if oddsmakers are sluggish to catch on.
The Patriots’ bruising again is averaging simply 46.4 yards in that stretch and has seemed extra like an inefficient plodder than a rising star. He has tallied 3.63 yards per carry over these 5 weeks — solely three of 54 certified backs have been worse throughout the complete season — and simply three of his 64 makes an attempt have gone for greater than 15 yards.
I wouldn’t anticipate any of that to vary on Thursday towards the Payments, who boast the third-best run protection within the league per DVOA. Buffalo ranks within the high 10 in speeding yards allowed per sport (105.6) and per carry (4.2) and may be capable of preserve Stevenson in verify in what is going to doubtless be a good sport script.
Payments vs. Patriots decide: Rhamondre Stevenson underneath 61.5 speeding yards at -115 with BetMGM
Tyler Bass over 1.5 subject objectives made
Particular groups props stay pretty related every week, regardless of the wildly totally different utilization of every workforce’s placekicker. That results in values like this one, as Bass must be priced as a a lot shorter favourite to ship a number of kicks by means of the uprights.
Buffalo’s third-year kicker has booted two or extra subject objectives in 4 of his final 5 video games, highlighted by a career-best six made subject objectives simply two weeks in the past. It’s no coincidence that his alternatives have come because the Payments’ tempo slows on offense. They’ve averaged almost a landing fewer per sport during the last 5 weeks whereas making an attempt 1.2 extra subject objectives per contest.
Equally, the Patriots’ protection is permitting the third-fewest touchdowns per drive (.156) however the 14th-most subject objectives (.156) — a peculiar ratio fueled by elite red-zone protection and so-so common subject place for his or her opponents. That’s the best recipe for Bass to string collectively a number of alternatives from distance on New England’s facet of the sphere.
Payments vs. Patriots decide: Tyler Bass Over 1.5 subject objectives made at -120 with BetMGM
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