Our Motion Community Luck Rankings are in for Week 14.
The unfortunate groups from the Motion Community Luck Rankings are 85-75-3 (53.1 p.c) in opposition to the unfold (ATS) general. That features a 43-35-1 (55.1 p.c) mark when groups differ by at the very least 10 locations since we began monitoring in Week 3.
Listed below are the matchups we’re eyeing for Week 14.
Texans (32) vs. Cowboys (4)
Giffen: Houston and Dallas have been on reverse ends of the luck coin final week.
The Texans ended up because the unluckiest group of Week 14 per our Dangerous Beat Rankings, thanks to a few defensive and particular groups touchdowns by the Browns.
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Their in-state rivals, then again, led Indianapolis by simply two factors heading into the fourth quarter earlier than the wheels fell off for the Colts. The Cowboys scored 33 factors — aided by a plethora of turnovers — which resulted in a 54-19 blowout that was a lot nearer than the scoreline signifies.
If the Texans can keep away from too many expensive turnovers, they need to be capable to preserve this recreation inside 17.5 factors. Going again to Davis Mills at quarterback ought to assist. Kyle Allen had 4 interceptions and 4 fumbles (shedding one) within the two video games he began.
Choose: Texans +17.5
Vikings (1) vs. Lions (25)
Koerner: It’s wonderful to say a 5-7 group is favored over a 10-2 group, however right here we're.
That’s what occurs when the 10-2 group has 9 wins by one possession, whereas each losses have been blowouts.
Final week, the Vikings escaped with a five-point victory regardless of being outgained by almost 200 yards. All six of the Jets’ second-half possessions reached the crimson zone, however they managed simply 16 factors.
It’s additionally a tough matchup for Kirk Cousins. The Lions blitz on the Tenth-highest charge within the NFL, and Cousins has struggled in opposition to blitzes. He ranks thirty first out of 36 certified quarterbacks in QB score and thirty fourth in success charge in opposition to the blitz.
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The Lions are literally favored over the Vikings by our third-order Pythagorean win proportion on a impartial discipline, and including in matchup issues and home-field benefit, I’d again them as a favourite under the important thing variety of three.
Choose: Lions -1.5
Jaguars (27) vs. Titans (6)
Giffen: Books are making Tennessee a 4-point favourite, which is kind of a hefty quantity for a group that has a worse level differential than its opponent.
In reality, if we transcend level differential and have a look at third-order Pythagorean expectation, the Jaguars ought to be a half-point favourite at a impartial discipline per our anticipated rating metric.
Our Motion Community PRO Projections present Tennessee ought to solely be a 3-point favourite, and our PRO Report reveals 4 of the 5 key indicators again the Jags at +4.
Choose: Jaguars +4
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