How NFL bettors can separate Super Bowl contenders from pretenders

LAS VEGAS — When time expired on the NFL common season, Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers squeezed their manner into the playoff bracket by hitting a long-shot parlay that was stuffed with surprises and sweat.

The very best was saved for final. It was a film script that ended with a wild evening in Vegas, the place the Raiders beat the Chargers 35-32 in additional time in arguably essentially the most dramatic recreation of all of them.

“That one was actually entertaining,” DraftKings sportsbook director John Avello mentioned. “It was completely insane.”

The Raiders and Steelers are within the AFC playoffs, and the Chargers and Colts are out. Will probably be powerful for Tremendous Wild Card Weekend to prime the madness of Week 18, which almost completed with the Raiders and Chargers enjoying to a tie that may have eradicated the Steelers.

“We had an important day, and it was a monster [wagering] deal with,” mentioned Avello, who attributed among the betting increase to the primary weekend of on-line wagering in New York.

Solely the highest seeds in every convention — Inexperienced Bay (NFC) and Tennessee (AFC) — get a bye within the first week of the postseason. BetMGM lists the Packers because the Tremendous Bowl favorites at 4/1 odds, adopted by the Chiefs (5/1), Payments (7/1), Titans (15/2) and Buccaneers (17/2). The playoff area seems to be a wide-open race.

Derek Carr
Derek Carr
Getty Photographs

“There’s no workforce to me that basically stands out,” Avello mentioned. “However I feel Inexperienced Bay is enjoying in addition to anybody.”

The Packers’ loss to the Lions was solely a footnote to a loopy Week 18. Aaron Rodgers handed for 2 touchdowns within the first half and sat out the second half of Detroit’s 37-30 win that had no impression on the playoff image.

It was a distinct story in Jacksonville, the place the Colts let a wild-card spot slip away in a 26-11 loss to the lowly Jaguars. Indianapolis’ flop as a 15-point favourite opened the door for the Steelers, who staged a comeback to beat the Ravens in additional time. Roethlisberger’s profession was prolonged solely after the Raiders knocked out the Chargers.

Within the huge image, Pittsburgh’s presence within the playoffs is predicted to be transient. The Steelers are the largest underdogs in motion this weekend by getting 12.5 factors at Kansas Metropolis.

“I don’t need to watch Pittsburgh, and watching Ben Roethlisberger play right now in his profession is painful,” mentioned VSiN analyst Michael Lombardi, a former NFL government. “However the Colts don’t need to go to the playoffs.”

Derek Carr’s two landing passes Sunday evening helped the Raiders wrap the common season with a four-game successful streak. Carr now hits the street in a fast turnaround.

A tie with the Chargers would have despatched the Raiders to Kansas Metropolis. As a substitute, the postseason kicks off Saturday with the Raiders as 6.5-point underdogs at Cincinnati. Second-year quarterback Joe Burrow led the Bengals to a 32-13 win in Las Vegas on Nov. 21.

Ben Roethlisberger
Ben Roethlisberger
Getty Photographs

“It’s a pleasant draw for the Raiders to get Cincinnati and a quarterback who’s inexperienced within the playoffs,” Avello mentioned. “The Raiders are in all probability as sizzling as anybody within the playoffs.”

Within the second recreation of Saturday’s AFC doubleheader, the Patriots and Payments conflict for the third time this season after the street workforce gained the primary two conferences. Buffalo is a 4.5-point house favourite.

“There’s going to be Patriots motion,” Avello mentioned. “The Payments are successful however beating unhealthy groups and don't appear to not be operating on all cylinders proper now.”

Tom Brady and the Buccaneers begin their march towards a Tremendous Bowl repeat as 8.5-point house favorites in opposition to the Eagles. Tampa Bay gained the primary assembly 28-22 on Oct. 14 in Philadelphia.

Dak Prescott and the Cowboys crushed the Eagles in Week 18 and enter the playoffs with the league’s finest unfold report at 13-4.The one recreation of Tremendous Wild Card Weekend that’s not a rematch from the common season is 49ers-Cowboys. Dallas is a 3-point house favourite, however the line opened barely greater earlier than rapid sharp motion confirmed on San Francisco.

The Cardinals are 10-7 ATS this season, together with 8-1 on the street. Arizona is a 4-point street ‘canine to the Rams, who backed into the NFC West title and limp into the playoffs with a quarterback, Matthew Stafford, who’s using a destructive turnover pattern.

The Tremendous Bowl can be in Los Angeles, barring a COVID-19 curveball, and the Rams are getting 10/1 odds to win the title on their house area.

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