Jay Wright reacts throughout Villanova's win over UConn.
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We’ve made it midway via our area breakdowns for the NCAA Match and now focus in on the South Area.
The PAC-12 champion Arizona Wildcats are the highest seed within the area as Villanova, Tennessee and Illinois spherical out the highest 4 within the part.
Arizona is the favourite to achieve the nationwide semifinal at +120, and there’s a giant dropoff from there. Villanova, the second selection, is available in at +400, whereas Tennessee arrives at +550.
However how ought to bettors method the futures market on this area? Listed here are my picks for the most effective worth, odds to keep away from and choose to advance to New Orleans.
Worth Play – #5 Houston Cougars (+550)
Equally to our analysis of Texas Tech within the West area, the calling card of this Houston group is its capability to defend.
Amongst NCAA Match groups, it owns the ninth-best adjusted defensive effectivity and the fourth-best adjusted effectivity margin, each per kenpom.com. That is additionally a Houston group that takes care of the basketball and doesn’t enable many second probability alternatives. The Cougars sit sixteenth within the subject in turnover proportion and seventh total in true rebounding proportion, per sports-reference.com.
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Plus, despite the fact that Houston doesn’t play within the strongest convention, I feel there’s one thing to be stated in regards to the reality it has solely three losses this calendar yr, two of which got here in opposition to the Memphis Tigers.
The trail to the regional last could possibly be difficult — even first-round foe UAB has the potential to trigger issues for the Cougars — however I like the way in which head coach Kelvin Sampson’s squad matches up with top-seed Arizona. The Wildcats play the third-quickest tempo amongst match groups, so a slowed-down sport (the way in which Houston likes to play) might give Houston a bonus.
From there, I price Houston fairly equally with presumed regional last foes Villanova or Tennessee. For these causes, I feel there’s worth available with this quantity.
Steer Clear – #2 Villanova (+400)
Put head coach Jay Wright’s group in another area and I feel it’s price a glance. However not right here.
The trail to New Orleans is plagued by high-quality opponents for a aspect I imagine concurrently has a excessive ceiling and low ground. If Loyola (IL) get previous Ohio State within the first spherical, it might trigger huge matches for the Wildcats. The Ramblers personal the seventh-best true capturing proportion and fifth-best efficient subject objective proportion amongst match groups, per sports-reference.com.
Villanova is first rate at defending the arc — it ranks nineteenth within the subject in three-point subject proportion allowed — however there’s an opportunity the Ramblers get sizzling and shoot their solution to the regional semifinal.
Even when the area goes as I count on and Arizona, Villanova, Tennessee and Houston are the regional semifinalists, I'd have Wright’s squad power-rated third in that group. Given the discrepancy between that feeling and Villanova’s odds, I've no selection however to go right here.
Decide to Advance – #5 Houston (+550)
Let’s be daring right here lets?
Finally, it’s my perception that whoever wins a hypothetical regional semifinal between Arizona and Houston will discover itself in Houston, however there’s too many positives to disregard with the Cougars.
Past what was said earlier, the Houston roster is comprised of skilled items. Two starters and 4 of seven key contributors return from final yr’s Remaining 4 group. Plus, since Kelvin Sampson took over, the Cougars have by no means failed to achieve the regional semifinals.
Lastly, six of the final eight groups to achieve the Remaining 4 had top-five adjusted effectivity margins in response to kenpom.com. From this area, solely two groups fulfill that requirement — Arizona and Houston.
I would wish +150 to contemplate backing the top-seed, so as an alternative I’ll take the next worth and think about a hedge ought to these groups meet.
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