With the FA Cup semifinals going down on Saturday and Sunday, the English Premier League includes a smaller-than-usual six-game slate over the weekend.
Two of the six matches stand out when it comes to betting worth:
Brighton (+500) vs. Tottenham Hotspur, 7:30 a.m. ET on Saturday
Irrespective of the game, realizing when to promote excessive on in-form groups is an effective skillset for bettors to develop. It's extra artwork than science, attempting to determine when the market has lastly reached a tipping level on a selected group, however oftentimes the numbers may help information you to a practical resolution.
Tottenham Hotspur are on hearth. With six wins from their final seven matches, Antonio Conte’s Spurs now appear like the favorites to nab the ultimate Champions League spot within the Premier League.
Tottenham’s surface-level numbers throughout this 6-0-1 (Win-Draw-Loss) run sparkle. Spurs have scored 25 instances and conceded simply 5 objectives. Tottenham have scored at the very least two objectives in every of their final seven video games and have netted 4 tallies 4 instances in that span. It’s been a whirlwind two months for the North London outfit, so it’s no surprise Spurs now discover themselves as -190 favorites over Brighton & Hove Albion.
Whereas Tottenham’s run has been spectacular they usually deserve full marks for getting themselves into the pole place for fourth-place, they're working fairly sizzling offensively. Over their final seven video games Spurs have created 16.5 anticipated objectives. That's nonetheless a powerful quantity, but it surely lags behind their precise output of 25 objectives. In some unspecified time in the future you’d anticipate Tottenham’s assault to sputter — if solely a little bit bit — and open the door for a group to provide a stunning outcome.
Brighton & Hove Albion might be that group. Regardless of a horrendous run of kind, the Seagulls nonetheless profile as one of many EPL’s most harmful underdogs. Graham Potter’s membership upset Arsenal at the same worth final weekend and has sometimes given the “Massive Six” hassle over the past yr. Along with that win over the Gunners, Brighton has earned attracts towards Chelsea (twice), Liverpool and Arsenal this season.
It’s been an atypical stretch for Potter’s Seagulls. Simply two matches faraway from a six-match dropping streak, Brighton has additionally struggled to manage matches. Referred to as the xG kings final season, the Seagulls have conceded extra anticipated objectives than they’ve created in 9 of their final 11 matches.
Brighton is best than what it’s proven over the previous couple of months and it is a good worth to purchase in on a turnaround from the Seagulls towards a group that has some unfavourable regression coming.
The Guess: Brighton +500 (all the way down to +470)
Brentford (+150) vs. Watford, 10 a.m. ET on Saturday
Whereas the market has in all probability grow to be too keen on Tottenham, it looks as if there may be nonetheless alternative to hop in on the Brentford Bandwagon.
With 4 wins of their final 5 matches, the Bees went from a relegation scrap to a possible top-10 end of their first-ever Premier League season. And should you’ve been taking note of Brentford’s predictive metrics, you might see this sizzling run coming.
Over their final 5 matches, Brentford has 4 wins and a loss with a +8 purpose differential. In response to Understat, the Bees have generated 10.05 xG in comparison with 4.4 xG towards. There’s nothing that screams “fluke!” about this present sizzling stretch and it’s additionally no coincidence that Brentford’s finest run of kind got here instantly after the membership signed Christian Eriksen. The Nice Dane has offered the Bees with the play-making prowess they’ve been lacking in the course of the sector and his chemistry with star striker Ivan Toney has been very good.
Brentford will now make the brief journey from West London to Vicarage Street to tackle relegation-favorites Watford. Whereas the Bees are in terrific kind, the Hornets have been a large number currently and appear all however doomed to be despatched all the way down to the Championship.
This can be a must-win match for Watford, however the Hornets don’t profile as the kind of group that ought to thrive on this scenario. Brentford is likely one of the finest urgent groups within the Premier League and the Hornets don’t have the ball-movers to beat the traces. Roy Hodgson’s groups sometimes like to sit down again and take up strain earlier than countering, and that sort of soccer is ok in a relegation battle once you’re attempting to maintain tempo with the pack, however that isn’t Watford’s job proper now. The Hornets must swim as much as the floor, not tread water.
There'll come a time to promote excessive on this Brentford membership, however this isn’t it. Getting +140 or higher on the Bees towards a membership that has misplaced 9 dwelling matches on the spin appears good worth, even when it finally ends up being a sq. play.
The Guess: Brentford +140 or higher
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