One other big slate of European soccer motion is upon us and I’m right here to share two greatest bets for the Premier League slate.
Whereas lots of eyeballs will likely be skilled on the FA Cup semifinals at Wembley Stadium that includes Manchester Metropolis-Liverpool and Chelsea-Crystal Palace, soccer bettors nonetheless get six video games to select from within the English prime flight.
For my pair of performs, I”m wanting past the perimeters, although, and selecting to deal with two totals, each overs. That stated, let’s dive into my two greatest bets for this weekend’s Premier League slate.
Greatest Wager #1 – Southampton/Arsenal FC Over 2.5 Objectives (-125)
Southampton have been embarrassed 6-0 at house in its final fixture towards Chelsea and solely generated 0.5 anticipated objectives in that match.
Nonetheless, its house goal-scoring file earlier than that match was stable and I consider its assault will rediscover that type towards Arsenal Saturday. Previous to the Chelsea assembly, the Saints created at the least one anticipated aim in six straight fixtures and eight of the final 9. The one fixture wherein it failed to take action got here in a match the place Southampton performed down a person a complete half.
Plus, Southampton might see slight optimistic offensive regression primarily based on its house performances. By 16 fixtures on the St. Mary’s Stadium, supervisor Ralph Hassenhutl’s aspect has scored 20 objectives on nearly 21.5 anticipated, per fbref.com.
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That stated, Southampton’s protection has struggled of late. In its final 5 Premier League fixtures, it has conceded two anticipated objectives per 90 minutes and has solely held one aspect beneath one anticipated aim. Opponents Arsenal arrive at this fixture in nice offensive type — 1.65 xG/90 minutes in its final 9 fixtures — and have a stable historic file towards Southampton — at the least 1.5 xG in two straight and 6 of the final seven head-to-head Premier League conferences.
However that is additionally an Arsenal protection that struggles to defend towards stress away from house. In 5 street fixtures towards top-half stress sides not named Manchester Metropolis and Liverpool, supervisor Mikel Arteta’s squad is conceding 1.3 anticipated objectives per 90 minutes and have stored solely two clear sheets, one among which was undeserved.
Because of this, count on a high-scoring contest between these sides on Saturday.
Greatest Wager #2 – Newcastle United/Leicester Metropolis Each Groups to Rating “Sure” (-140)
I acknowledge that is fairly a little bit of juice to put, however I’m shocked this value isn’t north of -160.
Either side enter this fixture with a BTTS share of 60 % or higher for the season and are each north of 67 % for his or her respective venues for this fixture (Leicester Metropolis has a 79 % BTTS share away from house this season).
Though Newcastle has stored clear sheets in two of its final three house fixtures, it has been some time because it confronted a prime offense on house soil. And in seven fixtures towards top-half offenses this season, Newcastle has but to maintain a clear sheet and has allowed 2.27 xG/90 in these fixtures.
On the similar time, although, Leicester’s protection has not held up effectively towards bottom-half sides, significantly away from house. In seven street fixtures towards such opposition this season, the Foxes have allowed at the least one xGA in all seven and have conceded at the least one aim in six, per fbref.com.
Given solely two sides — Manchester Metropolis and Chelsea — have held Newcastle goalless at house this season, count on supervisor Eddie Howe’s aspect to get on the board fairly simply. Add in that Leicester Metropolis has solely been held beneath 1.0 xG in two of its final 9 fixtures and I count on we’ll see objectives at each ends of the pitch come Sunday.
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