Justin Thomas performs an strategy shot into the seventh gap within the second spherical of The Gamers Championship.
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Having outlined our statistical modeling technique for The Masters, it’s time to dive in and make some picks!
First up is my favourite by-product bets for the week — a high 5, two high 20’s and a high 40 – that I imagine current one of the best worth of the myriad choices accessible.
The primary three such bets I imagine are able to successful, so I received’t fault you for taking an outright place on these gamers. That mentioned, listed here are my 4 favourite by-product bets for 2022’s first main event.
Finest Wager #1 – Justin Thomas High-5 End (+300), DraftKings Sportsbook
Thomas is my decide to win the occasion this yr and it’s my opinion this can be a loopy good value and much superior to his +1200 outright value.
By way of my 24- and 36-round fashions, Thomas arrives at Augusta Nationwide first in each. He’s ninth or higher in what I've rated as the 2 most essential classes – strokes-gained: Par 5’s and SG: Strategy – and exhibits up eighth in bogey avoidance as nicely throughout his final 36 registered rounds.
Within the 24-round mannequin, he’s sixteenth or higher within the 4 most essential classes and first within the area in bogey avoidance, so he’s coming into this event well-versed in escaping unforced errors.
Plus, Thomas has an honest historical past in his final 5 appearances at this event. The Alabama product has completed contained in the top-25 in all 5 begins, together with a solo fourth in 2020.
Additional, Thomas has sturdy finishes this yr at some correlated programs – sixth on the Genesis Invitational, T20 on the Farmers Insurance coverage Open – and has a probably unquantifiable benefit this yr. You’ll hear all of it week, however nobody is aware of Augusta Nationwide fairly like Jim “Bones” McKay (Thomas’ caddie) and will assist his boss enter Sunday in competition.
Finest Wager #2 – Matt Fitzpatrick High-20 End (+160), DraftKings Sportsbook
Though Fitzpatrick has solely recorded two top-25 finishes in seven Masters begins, he enters this yr’s event in excellent kind.
Throw out his efficiency at a PLAYERS event that featured robust climate situations and Fitzpatrick’s final 4 tournaments appear to be this: fifth, ninth, tenth, sixth. Plus, the Englishman has gained strokes tee-to-green in all 5 begins in 2022 (inclusive of the PLAYERS) and owns a red-hot putter, incomes 1.7 strokes on the sector in his 4 non-PLAYERS begins this season.
And identical to Thomas, Fitzpatrick has good historical past at Riviera Nation Membership, a correlated course to August Nationwide. In two begins on the Genesis Invitational, Fitzpatrick has completed fifth (2021) and thirtieth (2020).
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By way of his placement in my mannequin, Fitzpatrick ranks out fairly nicely. He’s second within the 24-round mannequin and fourth within the 36-round mannequin. Most significantly, Fitzpatrick ranks first within the area when it comes to SG: Par 5’s in each fashions and has good historical past on the 4 Par 5’s at August (-22 throughout his final 12 rounds right here).
Don’t be stunned if Fitzpatrick’s in competition this yr, however I imagine he’ll do no worse than twentieth.
Finest Wager #3 – Sam Burns High-20 End (+150), DraftKings Sportsbook
It’s all the time nervy inserting belief in a Masters rookie, however Burns charges out very extremely in my statistical mannequin.
Throughout the final 36 rounds, Burns exhibits up third specifically mannequin. He’s additionally no worse than fifteenth in all the 12, 24 and 50 spherical fashions. Simply when it comes to the 36-round mannequin, although, there’s loads to love about Burns. Though he enters thirty sixth within the area in good drives gained, he’s eleventh or higher within the area in all the remaining classes, together with seventh in bogey avoidance and tenth in SG: strategy.
Plus, though he missed the reduce at each occasions this yr, there’s some optimistic historical past for Burns at correlated programs. He completed third on the 2021 Genesis Invitational and 18th on the 2021 Farmers Insurance coverage Open. Plus, he was twenty third the prior yr on the Genesis.
Given he’s additionally gained strokes on the sector on the Par 5’s in three consecutive occasions, I count on Augusta Nationwide will go well with Burns nicely. He’s additionally not strolling in solely blind as caddie Travis Perkins has some expertise navigating Augusta Nationwide with earlier purchasers.
Whereas a Masters debutant hasn’t received since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979, count on a optimistic end from Burns this week.
Finest Wager #4 – Tom Hoge High-40 End (+115), Fanduel Sportsbook
Hoge is one other Masters rookie, however my statistical mannequin likes him fairly a bit.
Hoge enters Augusta Nationwide sixth in my 36-round mannequin and seventh general in my 24-round mannequin. Actually, Hoge is thirtieth or higher in these two fashions in addition to the 50- and 75-round projections.
However, there are a number of issues that lead me to be as cautious as potential with the 2022 Pebble Seashore Professional-Am winner. He missed the reduce at each the Genesis Invitational and Farmers Insurance coverage Open and, as talked about, has zero expertise at Augusta. Additional, bentgrass greens are by far his worst placing floor.
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That mentioned, he’s nonetheless gaining strokes on the sector in rounds on “troublesome” course setups and has completed contained in the top-40 in 10 of 12 occasions on the 2022 calendar during which he’s made the reduce. Moreover, in his final 5 occasions during which Hoge has made the reduce, he’s completed twentieth or higher in three.
Given Hoge is second in bogey avoidance throughout the final 36 rounds, an absolute implosion appears unlikely right here. He’s additionally seventh in SG: Strategy, so these two stats ought to assist counteract his Forty ninth-placed score SG: Par 5’s.
Whereas contending is a protracted shot, I imagine you’re getting a steal of a value right here. Primarily based on my mannequin, I'd play it right down to +100.
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