Tottenham Hotspur are in a must-win spot on Saturday, needing to get three factors towards Brentford to maintain tempo with everlasting rivals Arsenal within the race for the ultimate Champions League spot. Spurs and Arsenal have the identical report (18W-3D-11L) by means of 32 video games, with each groups in motion on Saturday.
Whereas Tottenham is a deserving favourite over Brentford, the Bees aren't any pushover. One of many Premier League’s finest tales this season, Brentford are simply two factors behind Leicester for a spot within the top-half of the desk.
Few groups are in higher type than Brentford over the previous six weeks. Since March 1, the Bees have received 5 of six matches with a +9 objective differential and a +6.26 anticipated objective differential. The Bees have been terrific defensively, solely permitting 5 objectives and 5.92 xG in that span.
That protection will likely be put to the take a look at towards Harry Kane, Son Heung-min and Spurs, however there are some indicators that time to Brentford with the ability to hold this Tottenham assault in examine. Whereas the Spurs have run rampant for the previous few months, the offense has been over-performing by a substantial margin. Tottenham has scored a formidable 21 objectives in its final seven matches, however its xG means that quantity must be nearer to fifteen. Moreover, Tottenham had been simply blanked by Brighton & Hove Albion final weekend, a group that does related issues nicely to Brentford.
With wins over Arsenal and Chelsea, plus a draw towards Liverpool, Brentford have confirmed to be a group that punches up nicely this season. The Bees have additionally performed very nicely at house, posting a +8.12 xG differential in 16 matches on the Brentford Group Stadium.
Tottenham nonetheless has some regression coming for it and this value appears to be like to be inflated due to the must-win narrative surrounding the favorites.
The Wager: Brentford +320
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