For the primary time in 5 years, the New York Rangers will play a playoff sport at Madison Sq. Backyard. The Blueshirts are -135 favorites for Recreation 1 in opposition to the Pittsburgh Penguins, however the sequence odds — which have the Rangers at -115 and the Pens at -105 — counsel this best-of-7 is actually a coin flip.
And given the way in which these two groups had been taking part in down the stretch, the sting the Rangers have in aim, the way in which the season sequence shook out and the truth that the Blueshirts have home-ice benefit, the sequence odds got here as a little bit of a shock. Most people, particularly those that don’t guess the NHL usually, would have anticipated the Rangers to be a shorter favourite for the sequence, seemingly within the -135 vary.
That argument, that the Rangers must be a extra appreciable favourite, does have advantage on the floor. Not solely did the Rangers end seven factors forward of the Penguins within the standings, however New York additionally went 14-6-1 after the commerce deadline, whereas Pittsburgh went 8-9-2.
Whereas current kind factors to the Rangers, the largest edge on this sequence is within the blue paint with Igor Shesterkin. That is the Russian’s NHL playoff debut, however there’s no motive to doubt that he received’t deal with the strain that comes with taking part in within the postseason. Shesterkin completed the season with a .935 save share and a +34.1 Objectives Saved Above Anticipated (GSAx). No goaltender got here near matching Shesterkin’s kind all through the season and it’s laborious to think about that Casey DeSmith will be capable of outduel Shesterkin over seven video games.
However the Penguins received’t be asking DeSmith to do this. The Penguins do venture to have the sting at 5-on-5, which ought to imply that Shesterkin would be the busier of the 2 netminders over the course of this sequence. Regardless of wobbling down the stretch, the Penguins completed the common season with the eighth-best anticipated objectives price and eighth-best high-danger scoring probability price. And whereas New York steadily improved its 5-on-5 numbers from the start of the season, the Blueshirts nonetheless ranked twentieth within the NHL in anticipated objectives price after New Yr’s Day and sixteenth for the reason that commerce deadline.
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Sidney Crosby’s play will go a good distance in deciding if Pittsburgh does find yourself with the higher of play at 5-on-5. Crosby is coming off one other improbable season and is among the sport’s finest two-way facilities at this level in his profession. If his line can nullify one among New York’s high traces, the scales ought to tip in the direction of Pittsburgh at even energy.
Betting in opposition to Shesterkin is rarely enjoyable, however there are causes to imagine that DeSmith can present the goaltending the Penguins want if they're going to be the higher play-driving workforce. DeSmith posted a .927 save share and +5.37 Objectives Saved Above Anticipated (GSAx) since Feb. 1.
Bettors could make an argument for either side of this matchup. The Rangers have loads of alerts pointing to them and there are instances to be made for the Penguins. That tells us that these video games are just about coin flips, so Pittsburgh getting +115 has some worth.
The Guess: Penguins +115
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