Al Jazeera speaks to geopolitical professional Agnia Grigas on the tensions between Russia and Lithuania.
Final Saturday, Lithuania banned the transit of products subjected to European Union sanctions by means of its territory to the Russian exclave Kaliningrad, which is on the Baltic Sea and about 1,300km (800 miles) from Moscow.
Lithuania stated the transfer was in step with European sanctions. Infuriated, Moscow referred to as it a “blockade” and promised to reply.
The banned items embrace coal, metals, development supplies and superior expertise, which make up 50 % of Kaliningrad imports, in accordance with the area’s governor, Anton Alikhanov.
Russia has demanded the restrictions are lifted, slamming Lithuania’s actions as “overtly hostile” in opposition to Kaliningrad.
Sandwiched between EU and NATO members Poland and Lithuania, the area receives provides from Russia by way of rail and fuel pipelines by means of Lithuania.
Kaliningrad was a part of Germany till the tip of the World Battle II, when it was given to the Soviet Union on the Potsdam Convention in 1945. Russia’s westernmost state has roughly 1 million residents, primarily Russians but additionally a small variety of Ukrainians, Polish and Lithuanians.
And critically, it considered basically as a Russian army base. The precise variety of troopers stationed there's unknown; estimates vary from 9,000 to as much as 200,000 army personnel.
The rising rigidity is fuelling fears over the Suwałki Hole, an 80km (50-mile) land hall crossing southeastern Poland and Lithuania, which is crucial to the safety of the Baltic states because it might join Russia’s Kaliningrad and Belarus.
Al Jazeera spoke with Agnia Grigas, a senior fellow and professional on vitality and geopolitics on the Atlantic Council, concerning the state of affairs in Kaliningrad, its potential implications on the warfare in Ukraine, and the way forward for the area.
Al Jazeera: How would you characterise Lithuania’s ban?
Agnia Grigas: That is actually not solely a Lithuanian choice, however a call made in Brussels to sanction the transit of sure Russian items by means of the European Union territory.
Now, the very fact is that Lithuania is the one nation throughout the European Union, the place this transit of products takes place often from mainland Russia by means of Belarus, by means of the territory of Lithuania into the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad. You could possibly argue that Lithuania might have sought exemptions as some European Union nations have sought exemptions from the assorted parts of Russian sanctions. In a approach, Lithuania decided to not search exemptions from the sanctions.
Al Jazeera: Russia has stated Lithuanian residents will “really feel the ache” over Kaliningrad. How would possibly Moscow reply?
Grigas: Russia might enact its personal sanctions on the sale of products to Lithuania. The important thing Russian exports are oil and fuel, and electrical energy, and Lithuania has already decided a lot earlier earlier than this battle, that it'll not be buying any Russian vitality sources. There could possibly be a query of fertilisers and different parts however there's already a broad blanket of European sanctions in opposition to Russian items.
I view Russia’s statements extra as threats and posturing for the Russian home viewers as a result of lots of [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s statements are typically aimed to point out the resolve and the energy of the Kremlin, fairly than essentially specifying any type of actions they'd take or for the exterior viewers.
What's regarding is that Russia used or the Kremlin use the phrases that Lithuania has enacted a blockade, both the phrase alternative is necessary, as a result of blockade could possibly be perceived as a army already motion, and due to this fact, Russia might attempt to, you recognize, justify some type of [military action], as nicely.”
Al Jazeera: May Kaliningrad and its financial system be affected? What are potential eventualities for Kaliningrad and Russian authorities to beat this rigidity?
Grigas: Kaliningrad already is a extremely remoted militarised area. Even throughout the context of the Russian financial system, that is extremely economically underdeveloped. We are able to count on extra stagnation and extra isolation for this area. Actually, the inhabitants of Kaliningrad, who're already having a tough time economically, are going to proceed to face extra hardships.
Al Jazeera: What's the significance of Kaliningrad to Russia and the area, particularly when it comes to geopolitical security? The Suwałki Hole is commonly thought of the weakest level of the NATO alliance. Why is that this?
Grigas: Kaliningrad is very necessary from a strategic perspective and it could actually actually be referred to as the Achilles’ heel of NATO as nicely. There are armed naval and air forces that Russia hosts there. It’s basically a army base separated from Russia’s mainland.
A key significance here's a strip of land that connects Poland and Lithuania – the Suwałki Hole. If Russia chooses to make use of the territory of Belarus for a army operation, as they've executed so, within the case of Ukraine, they might additionally ship the forces from Kaliningrad, basically chopping off Lithuania and Poland from one another, chopping off the Baltic states from the remainder of NATO territory.
Al Jazeera: How do you assume the Kaliningrad state of affairs can affect the warfare in Ukraine?
Grigas: I feel this case in Kaliningrad will present whether or not Russia is prepared to escalate additional this battle in opposition to the West, the European Union and NATO.
Al Jazeera: The US has stated that it'll stand behind Lithuania and its NATO commitments to defend it …
Grigas: NATO, america and European Union nations have been very cautious to not get entangled on this warfare. There’s an actual worry of potential escalation of battle with Russia immediately as a result of one, Russia stays a nuclear state. Second, due to the truth that it’s managed basically by a single man with a really small circle of advisers, who has basically a free hand to take no matter selections he may need.
Al Jazeera: Russia has stated Lithuania’s choice aggravates world meals shortages. To what extent do you assume the ban might contribute to the disaster?
Grigas: I feel the worldwide meals disaster is a results of Russia’s warfare in Ukraine, the blockade of the Black Sea, and particularly the board of Odesa. Russia might attempt to hyperlink these two points. Nonetheless, I feel the Kremlin has decided to exacerbate the world meals costs, inflation and entry to meals to strengthen its negotiating place.
Al Jazeera: Lithuania and Russia already had weak diplomatic relations, and the warfare in Ukraine has worsened them. How will their ties be affected by the ban?
Grigas: Lithuania has been a really vocal supporter of Ukraine because the very begin of the warfare this February and, frankly, since Russia’s occupation of Crimea [in 2014] and the preliminary invasion of the Donbas.
Earlier this summer time, Russia and Duma deputies had been discussing whether or not they need to revoke Lithuania’s independence that was agreed to by the Soviet Union in 1991. That is a part of form of a broader package deal of the Kremlin’s threats on a smaller neighbouring nation.
I don’t assume Lithuanian-Russian relations will enhance within the close to future. Frankly, European and Russian relations won't enhance within the close to future, nor will NATO and Russian relations, notably so long as the continued warfare in Ukraine continues.
Editor’s word: The interview has been flippantly edited for brevity and readability.
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