Jon Rahm
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We’ve reached our closing set of performs for the 2022 Memorial Event — the first-round chief!
The betting equal of blindly throwing some darts and hoping one hits the board, the first-round chief (FRL) market generally is a difficult one to navigate. Nonetheless, I’ve recognized 4 gamers that I imagine current bettors the very best worth to guide the match come Thursday evening.
With that in thoughts, listed here are my 4 finest bets available in the market. All odds come courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook and are reflective at time of writing.
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Guess #1 – Jon Rahm (+1800)
Though I’m not often one to again the outright favourite to guide after day one, I’ll be kicking myself if Rahm is in actual fact the first-round chief and I didn’t guess it.
Though he exhibits up twenty third total in my 24-round mannequin, Rahm is considerably higher within the opening spherical. Including in that qualifier strikes the 2021 US Open winner all the way in which as much as third total. That’s due largely to his excellence within the following classes: good drives gained (twelfth), strokes-gained: method (second), GIRs gained (first) and SG: Par 4’s – 450 to 500 yards.
It’s additionally value mentioning Rahm is fifteenth in SG: Par 5’s and has performed two consecutive opening rounds at Muirfield Village beneath par. In 2020 — the yr he gained — Rahm was tied for fifth on the finish of day one after recording a T-12 end final yr.
Lastly, Rahm ranks tenth on the PGA Tour this season in first-round scoring common. Within the 2021 season, the Spaniard completed second for the season in first-round scoring.
So though it’s a brief worth, I’m prepared to take a stab with Rahm within the hopes he will get out to a robust begin.
Guess #2 – Cameron Smith (+2600)
I’m selecting to buck the course historical past angle for Smith, who hasn’t produced many good showings at Muirfield Village.
In six begins on the Nicklaus design, Smith has missed the lower on 4 events and has by no means completed higher than sixty fifth within the two remaining outings. Nonetheless, I’m a bit shocked by that file as Smith is somebody who charges out very properly in my mannequin.
He’ll must get rid of the wayward tee pictures (76th in fairways gained over his final 24 opening rounds) to have an opportunity on the first-round lead, however there’s so much to love elsewhere. In that very same projection, Smith charges out twenty ninth in SG: method and thirtieth in GIRs gained.
Plus, he’s tenth or higher in sand saves (first), SG: Par 5’s (sixth) and SG: Par 4’s — 450 to 500 yards (ninth). All these projections lead him to be fifth total throughout his final 24 opening rounds.
There’s additionally the pattern moving into his favor that Smith led the PGA Tour final season in opening spherical scoring common and presently sits second in the identical metric this season.
For these causes, take a shot on the Aussie, who was inside a shot of the first-round lead on the Masters and solely three pictures off the tempo on the Gamers.
Guess #3 – Aaron Clever (+5000)
Very similar to Cam Smith, Clever is a little bit of a wizard on the subject of the opening spherical.
He’s tied for seventh on tour in first-round scoring this season — a 55-spot enchancment over his rating final season — and is a participant that fashions out very properly for this match. Not solely is he ninth total in my 24-round projection, however he ranks eleventh or higher in my four-, eight-, 12- and 24-round projections that add within the “first spherical” qualifier.
Simply by way of the latter projection, Clever sits eighth total within the discipline. There aren’t numerous weaknesses to search out both as Clever contained in the top-50 in eight of 10 statistical measures. Most impressively, he’s eighth in good drives gained, seventeenth in each SG: method and GIRs gained and twenty third in SG: Par 5’s.
Though he lacks expertise discovering his identify close to the highest of the leaderboard at this particular occasion, there are positives to contemplate. Final yr, he was an above-average participant in the entire following classes — SG: placing, method and off the tee.
Lastly, simply in his final 4 tournaments, Clever has posted an under-par spherical in every opening spherical. For these causes, I’m prepared to again him at a good quantity to get off to a robust begin in Ohio.
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Guess #4 – Luke Record (+8000)
As evidenced by this worth, Record is a little bit of a boom-or-bust candidate for the opening spherical. In 5 begins on the Memorial, the 2021 Farmers Insurance coverage Open winner has missed the lower 3 times. Nonetheless, he’s completed T-10 and T-37 within the remaining two outputs. Simply within the former, Record posted a robust opening spherical (two-under 70) and located himself solely 4 pictures off the tempo set by Tony Finau.
Though he doesn’t charge out very properly within the full-tournament modeling, Record does have some respectable numbers within the opening-round modeling projections. He’s sixth and tenth, respectively, in strokes-gained method and GIRs gained over his final 24 opening rounds and charges out twenty second total in that projection. He additionally has a robust sufficient file on the Par 5’s (thirty eighth total throughout his final 24 opening rounds in that measurement).
The concern with Record is at all times the identical — he can’t get his putter going and misses a bunch of scoring alternatives — however I’m hopeful his sturdy method numbers mitigate that concern. Plus, over his final 24 opening rounds, Record is fifteenth within the discipline in alternatives gained.
Based mostly on these metrics, I imagine Record is value a flier to finish Thursday on the prime of the leaderboard.
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