We’re all the way down to our third and last set of picks for the Open Championship.
Common readers of this column will know what which means — time to interrupt out our greatest darts and durable dart board as we try to nail the first-round chief. This week, I’m staying away from the favorites as my quartet of performs begins at 50/1 and options three gamers at higher than 80/1 odds.
So, with out additional delay, listed here are my finest first-round chief bets for the Open Championship. All odds come courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook and are reflective at time of writing.
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British Open golf picks, predictions to guide first spherical at St. Andrews
Finest Wager #1 – Dustin Johnson (+5000)
On account of his LIV defection, DJ arrives at St. Andrew’s probably somewhat out of sight and thoughts, however there are good causes to again him on this market.
Recall the 2015 Open Championship at this monitor the place DJ completed because the first-round chief and closed out Friday atop the leaderboard earlier than imploding with a pair of 75’s on the weekend. Plus, within the two majors this 12 months by which he made the lower, DJ has an awesome first-round report — he was two photographs off the tempo at each the Masters and U.S. Open.
By way of my statistical modeling, Johnson profiles out significantly better than his 50/1 value suggests. Throughout his final 12 qualifying opening rounds, the two-time main winner sits fourth total within the area.
Most impressively, Johnson is ninth in SG: Par 4’s, seventh in SG: Strategy and fifth in driving distance in that projection. He’s additionally second in birdies or higher gained and ninth in SG: Quick Recreation.
For these causes, again Johnson’s nice value at a course that seems to go well with his eye.
Finest Wager #2 – Cameron Younger (+8000)
I don't know what bettors will get from Younger’s Open Championship debut, however this looks like a very good compromise based mostly on his modeling.
Throughout his final eight qualifying opening rounds, Younger charges out seventh total in my first-round mannequin. His greatest weak spot in that statistical profile — ninetieth in GIRs gained — needs to be mitigated by the massive Outdated Course greens. Past that, Younger arrives with an awesome statistical profile.
He’s third in driving distance and thirty second in SG: Strategy over that span and, maybe most significantly, profiles out very effectively in birdies gained and three-putt avoidance. In that very same eight-round span, he’s seventh within the area in birdies or higher gained and ninth in bogey avoidance.
Plus, Younger has an awesome monitor report of late by way of robust Thursday outputs. He was tied for the first-round lead on the Memorial and held the outright first-round lead on the RBC Heritage.
Lastly, Younger ranks twenty third on tour this season in first-round scoring common. For all these causes, 80/1 looks like a very good buy-in value on Younger.
Finest Wager #3 – Wyndham Clark (+10000)
Clark is probably my favourite hidden gem this week at St. Andrew’s and profiles very effectively because the first-round chief.
Clark ranks second within the area in my eight-round projection and sits fifth total in my 12-round pattern. Within the latter mannequin, there’s loads that stands out about Clark. For instance, he’s second total within the area in driving distance, seventh in SG: Par 4’s and twelfth in birdies or higher gained.
Clark can be a good thirty first in each SG: Strategy and three-putt avoidance whereas rating first within the area in SG: Quick Recreation. Additional, Clark is eighth on tour in first-round scoring common and held the first-round lead on the RBC Canadian Open. Additional, Clark was solely a shot behind the leaders on the Memorial.
Plus, though he finally completed MC-Thirty fifth on the respective occasions, Clark was inside 4 photographs of the lead at each the U.S. Open and Vacationers Championship.
Backside-line: Clark charges out significantly better than his 100/1 odds counsel, so I’m keen to again him at a steep value.
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Finest Wager #4 – Russell Henley (+10000)
There are causes Henley has earned this 100/1 value, however there are sufficient positives that I’m keen to take a flier.
First off, Henley ranks fourth total on tour in first-round scoring common and has fired a gap spherical of even par or higher in eight of 11 occasions this calendar 12 months. Henley has additionally established himself as a little bit of an opening-round wizard as he ranked eleventh on tour final season in first-round scoring.
By way of his modeling output, Henley is a stable guess. Throughout his final 12 qualifying opening rounds, Henley sits fifteenth within the area. Though he doesn’t have lots of distance off the tee — 96th in driving distance — the remainder of his sport is kind of dependable. He’s 18th within the area in SG: Strategy, sixth in SG: Par 4’s and ninth in birdies or higher gained.
Henley additionally has an awesome quick sport on this mannequin — twenty first in SG: Quick Recreation — and is a good forty first within the area in three-putt avoidance.
Given all these traits, I’m keen to take a stab with Henley within the triple-digits.
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