The doubtless successor to al Qaeda after a strike killed chief Ayman al-Zawahiri is a veteran commando from Egypt who may function a “fixer” for the fear group, analysts mentioned.
Saif al-Adel is prone to take over as the fear group’s emir within the aftermath of Saturday’s drone strike that killed al-Zawahiri and ended the 21-year manhunt for Osama bin Laden’s successor, based on the Center East Institute.
The Egyptian-born commando has intensive expertise as a navy operative and in operational planning, based on the Worldwide Centre for Counter-Terrorism, which named him as a attainable successor to al-Zawahiri weeks previous to the latter’s killing.
Al-Adel — who makes use of aliases together with Muhamad Ibrahim Makkawi, Seif Al Adel and Ibrahim Al-Madani — may finally function a “fixer” for the fear group, ICCT analysts imagine.
“Nonetheless, al-Adel has traditionally most popular to maintain a low profile in his navy and intelligence roles, pointing to a attainable, although much less doubtless, future as a figurehead if he turns into emir,” terror consultants Tricia Bacon and Elizabeth Grimm wrote on July 15.
However al-Adel is believed to be in Iran, which complicates issues, based on Charles Lister, a senior fellow and director of the group’s Syria and Countering Terrorism & Extremism packages.
“Over the previous decade, no less than three Al Qaeda associates are identified to have questioned the credibility of directions coming from Saif al-Adel given his location in Iran, so had been he to change into Al Qaeda’s normal commander, associates would nearly actually start asserting their very own organizational independence much more than they already do,” Lister wrote.
As the fear group continues to attempt for international attain, the attainable fracture may “spell its demise knell,” Lister claims.
Iran may even have to decide on between expelling al-Adel and harboring him if he’s finally chosen as al-Zawahiri’s successor, a senior counterterrorism analyst informed CNN.
A former official within the Afghani community, nevertheless, informed the community that he had heard al-Adel had already left Iran for Afghanistan.
The Division of State is providing a $10 million reward for data resulting in al-Adel’s seize. He’s being sought in connection to the August 1998 bombings of US embassies in Tanzania and Kenya, the place 224 individuals, together with 12 Individuals, died in practically simultaneous bombings.
“Al-Adel is considered affiliated with the Egyptian Islamic Jihad (EIJ) and is believed to be a high-ranking member of the Al-Qaeda group,” an FBI Most Needed Terrorist poster reads.
Some have speculated that al-Zawahiri’s son-in-law, Abd al-Rahman al-Maghribi, may additionally emerge as al Qaeda’s new chief. He at the moment heads up the fear community’s media committee, ICCT reported.
“These familial bonds — in addition to his expertise in working Al Qaeda’s international media — could give him the ‘bona fides’ to imagine this management position,” Bacon and Grimm wrote.
Different attainable dark-horse candidates to step into the position embody Egyptian operations commander Abu Ikhlas al-Masri or Amin Muhammad ul Haq Saam Khan, who previously coordinated safety for bin Laden, ICCT reported.
“Whereas it's unsure who will rise to the highest spot, our evaluation of al-Zawahiri and his variation as a frontrunner demonstrates that even figuring out the person gives solely a lot details about the kind of chief he will probably be,” Bacon and Grimm wrote. “Due to this fact, we argue that it's much less vital to ask who al-Zawahiri’s successor will probably be, and relatively to ask what sort of chief he will probably be.”
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