It was a visit to recollect because the Giants accomplished the London Leap by defeating the Cheeseheads from Inexperienced Bay final Sunday. The cherry on high? Daniel Jones consoling Aaron Rodgers postgame — “Are you all proper?” No, Daniel, he simply had Kayvon Thibodeaux respiratory down his neck all morning and misplaced as 8-point favorites.
The Ravens are 6-point favorites at MetLife Stadium this weekend, which appears excessive, however Vegas is aware of. They didn’t wish to hold a 3.5 or 4 on the market for us to smash into oblivion. Many of the superior metrics say the Giants are successful on smoke and mirrors. They're backside 10 within the league in run protection, cross rush, protection, cross blocking and receiving, based on Professional Soccer Focus’ superior group knowledge. What that tells me is that if they get behind with this fortunate protection, they're useless meat.
In my inaugural wager in reduction of the vacationing Dave Blezow, we're giving ’em the factors. Lamar Jackson is greater than acquainted with the secondary blitzes of Wink Martindale, who was the Ravens’ defensive coordinator for years. No surprises this weekend.
The decide: Ravens -6
GREEN BAY PACKERS (-7.5) over New York Jets
Aren’t we getting a bit forward of ourselves with an anticipated offended Packers group internet hosting? The Jets’ younger weapons are stable, however they're nonetheless twenty first in yards-per-play and ranked thirty second by PFFs requirements. Do the implied odds actually say the Packers can be simply four-point favorites if this sport had been at MetLife? Let’s chill out. The Pack is again, this week at the very least. They get the win simply right here.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-8.5) over Pittsburgh Steelers
Why on earth are Kenny Pickett’s first two begins in opposition to Buffalo and Tampa Bay? The second-and third-ranked groups by way of DVOA within the NFL get to feast on Pickett. The Steelers are 1-4 and wanted 5 Joe Burrow turnovers to barely eke out a Week 1 victory. With Mike Tomlin making questionable choices left and proper, perhaps he actually does wish to go to the school ranks and take some “sufficiently big clean checks” from just a few boosters. Take the road-favorite Bucs. This Steelers group has fallen, and may’t stand up.
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CINCINNATI BENGALS (-2) over Saints
Jarvis Landry, Chris Olave, and Michael Thomas are all wanting bleak to play this weekend for New Orleans. Would like to again the Saints on the Superdome, nevertheless it’ll be a bleak affair if none of them are a go. Joe Burrow is your man this weekend, as this line may soar to 4 if these guys are dominated out.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-3.5) over Miami Dolphins
No, we don’t belief Kirk Cousins in Miami, however Skylar Thompson will not be price anybody’s hard-earned cash. Purchaser watch out for a potential Teddy Bridgewater revenge sport (43-21 ATS profession) ought to he get previous the concussion protocol. Given the scary scenes with Tua Tagovailoa just a few weeks in the past, I’ll assume he received’t play. Justin Jefferson has one other discipline day in opposition to the third-worst passing protection within the NFL.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-5.5) over Atlanta Falcons
Marcus Mariota coated in opposition to Tampa Bay final week. Go determine. However the Buccaneers are simply 29-29-2 ATS since Tom Brady signed with the group. The 49ers, then again, are 35-25 since 2019. Their protection all the time reveals as much as play no matter how poor their opposition is anticipated to be. The Niners are 8-4 ATS as favorites since Nov. 21. They present up, play arduous and revel in hitting unhealthy groups’ quarterbacks. Chalk, chalk, chalk, it’ll finish quickly.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (+2) over Indianapolis Colts
Matty Ice, why have you ever gone so chilly? If Frank Reich loses this one he will likely be on the chopping block as the following coach fired. Certain the Colts are at house, however the place are they higher than the Jaguars proper now? The Colts are thirty second in offensive DVOA, backed by the Thirty first-ranked offense by Professional Soccer Focus. The Jags are about common — perhaps barely above at finest — however the Colts shouldn’t be favored in opposition to anybody.
CLEVELAND BROWNS (-2.5) over New England Patriots
One of many hardest video games of the week to wager. Can we simply wager below 43.5? Plainly Invoice Belichick is the one coach who may win video games with out a quarterback in any respect. New England is best than we thought, however nonetheless not higher than the Browns. Nick Chubb lengthens his rushing-yards lead as he wears down the league’s Twenty second-ranked run protection in rush yards allowed per sport.
CAROLINA PANTHERS (+10) over Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are horrible, and the Panthers simply acquired an improve at quarterback and (perhaps) head coach. Coach Matt Rhule was a catastrophe and Baker Mayfield is the Thirty sixth-ranked quarterback (out of 36) by Professional Soccer Focus. The Rams’ Matthew Stafford isn’t significantly better (thirty second), however the Panthers nonetheless have Christian McCaffrey and a few receivers to unfold the like to. Whether or not the Temple product PJ Walker can get the rock to his weapons is one other query. The Panthers don’t win or ever flirt with successful, however I’ll take the massive quantity for a hopeful backdoor spot.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (+2.5) over Arizona Cardinals
Whoa, Geno! Possibly that is what Ben McAdoo noticed? Geno Smith has gone scorched earth on the NFL and has a group that actually believes in him. PFF has him ranked as the highest QB within the league by so much. Search for a complete shootout in Seattle that far surpasses the 50.5 anticipated whole. With DeAndre Hopkins suspended for another week, I’ll take the house canine in a coin-flip battle.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (+2.5) over Buffalo Payments
The wager of the week. All of the Chiefs do as underdogs is canopy. Since Mahomes changed Alex Smith, they're 7-0-1 ATS as underdogs. Mahomes has additionally by no means been a house underdog. Certain, the Payments are livid that they misplaced this matchup final yr and doubtless dropped a Tremendous Bowl start. They spent the entire offseason fascinated with it, however that doesn't imply they might be worthy of a six-point unfold if this sport had been in Buffalo. Arrowhead Stadium is a really tough place to play, and the Chiefs are each bit the offensive juggernaut that they had been when Tyreek Hill was working wild final yr. Offensively, this ought to be a close to stalemate, and the Chiefs’ protection is best than you assume. Take the factors at Arrowhead.
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PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-6.5) over Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys’ cross rush is dominant, however the Eagles have the most effective offensive line within the NFL. The highest-ranked offensive line in cross blocking ought to do effectively right here to decelerate Demarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons. Cooper Rush hasn’t been dropping video games for Dallas, however we all know he can’t win them. Even when the cross rushers are working down Jalen Hurts, they received’t be capable of sustain for lengthy, as Rush leads one other three-and-out.
Monday
CHARGERS (-4.5) over Broncos
Brandon Staley went from a favourite to win Coach of the 12 months to climbing odds for the primary coach fired. This might very effectively be a loser-leaves-town match, because the media requires each his and Nathaniel Hackett’s jobs. The Broncos are the higher protection, however Russell Wilson is both injured or unhealthy or each. Again the Chargers on ”Monday Night time Soccer.” They've Keenan Allen again within the fold, and Austin Ekeler is the featured star of this group.
Blezow bye
Dave Blezow’s column is on its bye week. Listed below are his alternatives in opposition to the unfold for Week 6:
Commanders, Giants, Jets, Buccaneers, Bengals, Dolphins, Falcons, Colts, Patriots, Panthers, Seahawks, Chiefs, Cowboys, Broncos.
Finest bets: Jets, Patriots, Chiefs
Lock of the week: Jets (Locks 3-2 in 2022)
Final week: 9-7 total, 2-1 Finest Bets.
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