Every little thing that might go mistaken did go mistaken for the New York Islanders final season. Alternatively, little or no went awry for the Florida Panthers, who set a salary-cap period report with 340 targets scored and gained the Presidents’ Trophy with 122 factors, which was 38 greater than the Isles accrued.
Contemplating how these groups fared final season, it’s not a shock to see the Cats as a street favourite. However is that this a case of those two golf equipment being priced just like the groups we noticed final 12 months quite than those we should always anticipate to see in 2022-23?
Let’s dive in.
Panthers vs. Islanders prediction
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The Florida Panthers had been an absolute drive final season. The Cats had been an offensive buzzsaw that had no points with betting on themselves in back-and-forth contests. And there was nothing flukey about Florida’s efficiency. The Panthers paced the NHL in anticipated targets, shot makes an attempt and high-danger scoring probabilities at 5-on-5, so there have been no smoke-and-mirrors at work in South Florida.
However that was the common season. As a result of as soon as the postseason began, the Cats appeared like a unique group — and never in a great way. After barely getting by the No. 8 seed Washington Capitals in Spherical 1, the Panthers had been swept by their in-state rival, the Tampa Bay Lightning, in Spherical 2.
Quite than staying the course and hoping that the group’s dip in kind was only a postseason blip, the Cats revamped their group by firing Andrew Brunette, hiring Paul Maurice after which buying and selling Jonathan Huberdeau and Mackenzie Weegar for Matthew Tkachuk.
Tkachuk is a star and an entire menace for opposing defenders to cope with, however eradicating Huberdeau, Florida’s all-time scoring chief, and Weegar, a robust first-pairing defenseman, from this roster is actually a threat. The Panthers ought to nonetheless be capable of rating loads of targets, however the protection now appears to be like fairly weak behind Aaron Ekblad.
And it’s not just like the Panthers had been a dominant defensive facet final season, both. The Cats completed sixteenth in anticipated targets towards and twenty second in stopping high-danger scoring probabilities allowed, in order that they actually relied on their world-beating offense to paper over some cracks on the blueline and in objective.
Whereas scoring targets was by no means an issue for the Panthers final season, it was the largest difficulty for the New York Islanders. The Isles completed twenty second in targets per recreation in 2021-22 and had simply two 20-goal scorers and three 50-point gamers final season. The Islanders had been by no means going to be a prolific offense, however these numbers are merely not even near adequate for a group that entered the marketing campaign as a classy Stanley Cup choose.
The Islanders did underperform final season, however in addition they needed to cope with an nearly laughable quantity of poor luck. Not solely did the group begin the 12 months on a 13-game street journey, however in addition they had been ravaged by COVID and had a cluster of accidents to key gamers.
However there have been some silver linings to how the Islanders performed over the second half of the season. The Isles performed at a 97-point tempo after the COVID pause up till they had been formally eradicated they usually skated to a 98-point tempo from March 1 to the elimination recreation, and in that span, they performed essentially the most condensed schedule within the league (26 video games).
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Regardless of a down 12 months, the one notable modifications the Isles made within the offseason had been firing head coach Barry Trotz and buying and selling for Alexander Romanov to take over for the now retired Zdeno Chara.
That will not sound like an important factor for a group that solely posted 84 factors final season, but it surely’s additionally value remembering that this roster is principally unchanged from final October, once they had been +1500 to win the Stanley Cup and thought of a reputable risk within the Japanese Convention.
Florida’s offense will give groups matches all season, however the Islanders do venture as a good defensive group they usually have one of many recreation’s finest goaltenders behind them as a security web.
After spending his early 20s dominating the KHL, Ilya Sorokin is now in his third NHL season with the Isles, however that is the primary time he’ll enter the 12 months because the undisputed starter. And for good purpose.
Sorokin completed 2021-22 with the second-best save share, third-best Targets Saved Above Anticipated and second-most shutouts, so it’s no shocker to see him because the third-favorite to win the Vezina behind Igor Shesterkin and Andrei Vasilevskiy.
The Florida Panthers are higher than the New York Islanders, however this quantity appears too steep contemplating the situational spot. The Panthers are taking part in their first recreation below Paul Maurice. They’re adjusting to life with out Huberdeau and Weegar. And the protection appears to be like prefer it may very well be an actual difficulty. Throw in the truth that they’re going up towards Sorokin and you'll see the recipe for an upset on Thursday evening.
And in case you are considering betting on the Isles, you doubtless can wait out the market on this case. The Panthers ought to entice many of the pre-game motion, so it’s unlikely that this quantity will get any shorter on the Isles.
The choose: New York Islanders +115 (FanDuel)
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