The ultimate 4 groups on this 12 months’s Champions League will probably be determined Wednesday as quarterfinal play concludes this week.
One crew – Liverpool – has nearly secured its spot within the penultimate spherical after handing Benfica a 3-1 defeat within the opening leg. However, the remaining three ties are nonetheless up for grabs.
With that in thoughts, listed here are my two finest bets for the second legs of the quarterfinals. All odds are topic to vary and are reflective on the time of writing.
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Finest Guess #1 – Chelsea Draw, No Guess (-104 ) vs. Actual Madrid
Actual Madrid fleeced the Blues 3-1 within the opening leg at Stamford Bridge, however I imagine there are positives to take from that fixture for Chelsea.
The 2021 Champions League victors outshot its opponent 20-8, had extra touches within the penalty space (24-8), and generated extra shot-creating actions (32-11) than Actual Madrid, per fbref.com. Moreover, the edges had been stage on large scoring probabilities and Chelsea gained the anticipated aim battle within the second half (0.92-0.78) regardless of dropping the half 1-0, per fotmob.com.
Of additional encouragement is the very fact Chelsea seemingly rediscovered some optimistic type over the weekend. In its 6-0 victory at Southampton, Chelsea created 4.4 anticipated objectives, conceded solely 0.5, and gained the large scoring probabilities battle 9-1.
Plus, Actual Madrid will probably be dealing with a notable absence in protection: Eder Militao. With out the Brazil worldwide within the lineup, Los Blancos are permitting 0.78 anticipated objectives per 90 greater than with him on the pitch.
FanDuel has Chelsea to win with a tie leading to a push set at -104.
Moreover, Actual Madrid has drastically overperformed its underlying metrics just lately. In its final six matches, supervisor Carlo Ancelotti’s aspect owns a +6 aim differential, however solely a +1.3 anticipated aim differential. That development can be indicative of Actual’s Champions League efficiency because it holds a +14 aim differential via 9 matches, however solely a +5.3 xGDiff.
Though I’m unsure Chelsea could make up a two-goal deficit, again it to get a consequence on the Bernabeu.
Finest Guess #2 – Bayern Munich/Villarreal Each Groups to Rating + Over 2.5 Objectives (-106)
Villarreal emerged from the primary leg with a 1-0 dwelling victory, however the underlying metrics counsel this match ought to have featured extra objectives.
Each groups mixed for 3.1 anticipated objectives whereas additionally combining for 3 large scoring probabilities and 34 whole pictures, per fotmob.com. Moreover, Bayern and Villarreal mixed for 63 penalty space touches, together with 39 from the Bavarian outfit. That's the highest whole for Bayern within the knockout spherical and the second-largest output in all 9 Bayern Champions League fixtures this marketing campaign.
Additional, Bayern Munich is way superior offensively at dwelling, so I count on it to dominate. In 19 Bundesliga + UCL fixtures, the perennial German champions common 2.73 anticipated objectives per 90 minutes. In 19 street Bundesliga + UCL fixtures this season, that common drops to 2.45 xG/90 minutes. Simply in 4 dwelling UCL fixtures, supervisor Julian Nagelsmann’s aspect has created 3.18 xG/90.
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However, that is concurrently a Villarreal aspect that is aware of generate scoring probabilities. By 9 UCL fixtures, supervisor Unai Emery’s aspect has generated at the least one anticipated aim in eight and the fourth-most large scoring possibilities of the eight remaining sides.
Given the Spanish outfit has solely been held goalless in a single Champions League fixture this season, count on manufacturing from each side in a high-scoring contest.
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